Kenya

I was there for six months in 2001. At that time, Daniel arap Moi was still president - and had been since 1978 or so. People couldn't wait to get rid of him. He stood down in 2002 and Mwai Kibaki, at the head of an opposition coalition, defeated his nominated successor Uhuru Kenyatta. The progress under Kibaki was fantastic and when I visited Kenya again last October the positive changes were obvious. People seemed happy with Kibaki in Gilgil, which is the town where I stayed back in 2001. It's a predominantly Kikuyu area though, and down on the coast people were expressing support for the opposition candidate Raila Odinga.

Kenyan politics has long been troubled by ethnic divisions; it was known that Kalenjins (a very small tribe, relatively) prospered disproportionately under Moi. But the scale of violence following the disputed election was a huge shock to me: I just didn't think that the ethnic divisions could result in such intensity of conflict so quickly. However it was totally wrong (but typically sensasionalist) of the Western media to start making comparisons with Rwanda so quickly. This article is an excellent insight into the situation and ends with a very moving message of hope. Having looked at electoral systems as a tool for managing ethnic conflicts at university I got quite excited by the prospect of forging a new constitution for Kenya. Hope it happens.

In the meantime, Reading this afternoon should be a good, open game and a win. Lawrenson's prediction of 3-1 sounds right.